Coronavirus 2003-2020, past and ongoing research on SARS, SARS-COV-2, COVID-19






Work group at Université Paris Dauphine – PSL: follow this link.


Old position: chair of the RDA-COVID19-Epidemiology group.

Scientific committee:…

Public interventions:

– GdT Covid intervention: vidéo YouTube here

 – Some information on the French Mathematical Society site / CNRS version



medRxiv homepage logoCOVID-19 adaptive humoral immunity models

The individual immunity plays an important role for the patients’ COVID-19 outcome. We propose in this work a numerical model that describes the interaction between the immune system of the host (patient) and the invading SARS-CoC-2 virus. We discuss two important topics (non-neutralizing antibodies and antibody-depencent enhancement phynomena (ADE) and its consequences for vaccination and secondary infection(s).

medRxiv homepage logoImmunity after COVID-19: protection or sensitization ?

This work with Antoine Danchin asks the question of the consequences of a first infection with SARS-CoV-2: does a first infection builds immunity or on the contrary will a second infection be more severe due to ADE mechanisms, what are the likely impact of such a phenomenon.
livre droit2020: Lockdown : the forecasts that do not take into account different transmission rates within different types of individuals (general population, medical doctors, etc.) will likely be pessimistic. Mathematical proof here.

medRxiv homepage logo summary

livre droit2020: Will individuals respect the lockdown ?

The inviduals will likely lockdown early but will not follow the societal lockup prescriptions when the epidemic delines (published in Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena, open access)
Simultaneous experimental validations:
– individuals will lockdown by themselves early (
– individuals will end lockdown early than advised:

livre droitPrésentation at Health Data Hub France 13/5/2020: SLIDES HERE

medRxiv homepage logo 2020: SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 propagation: the role of asymptomatics and transmission routes.

YouTubeA short Youtube video (in French) presenting this work:

livre droit 2003 propagation paper: A double epidemic model for the SARS propagation, published in BMC Infect. Diseases.

livre droit 2006/07 paper: with arguments that SARS will return (!!) published in Encyclopaedia of Infectious Diseases, 2007, free version here